Is there space for Mudavadi in “G7”?

It is in G7’s interest to ensure that the run-off is more friendlier by ensuring Raila is not there and their only weapon is Musalia’s exit from ODM – to nowhere, especially not G7.

Today, there has been a statement that appears to have ignited excitement in Kenyan political circles. Musalia Mudavadi, a loyal ally of Raila Odinga and formerly Uhuru Kenyatta and Daniel Moi, is “assessing” ODM’s decision to file for a Political Parties Act compliance certificate with its current constitution. Thereafter he is to “issue a comprehensive statement over the matter”.

While Mudavadi’s statement has left many guessing on the comprehensiveness of the next one, there are already conclusions that he is dumping ODM and jumping into the “G7 Alliance”. But recent developments within the so-called G7 Alliance begs the question whether there is any space for Mudavadi. Those who have followed G7 politics keenly, even when insiders say otherwise, can clearly tell that there is no room for Mudavadi in whatever the alliance is.

When G7 Alliance was first introduced to Kenyan, it even had the likes of Balala but he has recently disowned the group probably realising there is no space for him. Tuju also tried squeezing himself into G7 to the extent of inviting the group to his party launch but he is now walking alone.

Kalonzo could be another likely politician making a slow exit from the union as Uhuru and Ruto continue to sideline him and endear themselves to Eugene. And there you have it – G7 is Uhuru, Ruto and Eugene plus their close associates such as Duale, Keter, Phogisio, Mwakwere, Kiraitu and Kutuny. Due to big egos, it has become evident that G7 is now looking at just the top three positions in the next government – President, Deputy President and Leader of Majority and therefore are not likely to agree on a single candidate.

Mudavadi is only valuable to Uhuru, Ruto and Eugene as long as he walks away – to nowhere – with his perceived ODM’s support. Uhuru and Ruto have more than once dismissed the notion that Mudavadi is their option B in case the ICC cases block them from running and insisted that they will be on the ballot. The trio’s only interest in Mudavadi leaving ODM  is having a weakened ODM and thus a weaker Raila who they can even lock out of a run off.

A G7-Raila runoff is the greatest worry for Uhuru, Ruto and of course Eugene and their allies. Any plan that locks Raila out of the runoff works perfectly for the grouping as there is no threat of some of their voters jumping ship after the first round.As it stands, Mudavadi is Raila’s greatest strength and link in the current political game.

Whether is it Uhuru-Ruto, Ruto-Uhuru, Uhuru-Eugene, Eugene-Uhuru, Ruto-Eugene or Eugene-Ruto, any combination would lose to Raila-Mudavadi in a runoff. So the only way to ensure that Raila does not get to the runoff, meaning he gets number three or four in the first round, is to ensure that Mudavadi is not his running mate.

A Uhuru-Ruto or Ruto-Uhuru ticket would be an easy target for propaganda especially if the ICC baggage will not have been sorted. This ticket could easily win the first round of the polling but could easily lose to Raila-Mudavadi in the run-off, assuming that their other opponents back ODM.

A Uhuru-Eugene or Eugene-Uhuru ticket is not assured of Ruto’s support in the second round, if Ruto also runs in the first round and does not make it to the run-off. The same applies for a Ruto-Eugene or Eugene-Ruto ticket as Uhuru’s support is not assured if he does not make it past the first round.

With the above scenarios, it would be in G7’s interest to ensure that the run-off is more friendlier by ensuring Raila is not there and their only weapon is Musalia’s exit from ODM – to nowhere.

But as they say, one day is a long time in politics as there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies.


One thought on “Is there space for Mudavadi in “G7”?

  1. Excellent analysis Oliver. I think the fact that ODM decided to go ahead and “comply” knowing full well how Mudavadi would react says volume about their calculations as to how things will play out.

    I am constantly amazed by the utter inability of Kenya’s political elites to develop trust for each other. Even UhuRuto lacks trust. All these alliances could break up tomorrow if a more enticing proposal emerges.

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